The path and heterogeneity of the impact of human capital quality on urban innovation advantage in the cities of the Yellow River Basin

The impact of human capital quality on regional innovation exhibits a core-periphery heterogeneity, yet research focusing on peripheral regions remains relatively scarce. In light of the realities of population outflow and increasing aging, this paper constructs a quality evaluation system for human capital quality based on “education-structure-skill” and a measurement framework for regional innovation capability centered on “innovation space-innovation output”. Integrating relevant statistical data from 2000 to 2020, it employs various research methods, including fuzzy reasoning, Geo-detector, and panel quantile regression, to empirically analyze the impact of human capital quality on innovation competitive advantage and the heterogeneity of its pathways in China's innovation lowland—the Yellow River Basin. The results indicate that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the urban innovation capability and human capital quality in the study area have improved year by year, with notable heterogeneity. Provincial capitals demonstrate relatively high innovation levels and superior human capital quality. (2) At the city level, a “one core, multiple nodes” model is established, with Xi'an as the innovation core, followed by Zhengzhou, Jinan and Qingdao, alongside with spatial correlation effects. (3) The innovation driving force transitions from “education-scale” to “education-skill”, with different levels of regulation from the structure of human capital quality and its insurance level. (4) High-education and high-skill talent show a threshold effect in driving innovation competitiveness, manifesting their impact only when cities are major or core cities. (5) The education dimension of human capital quality forms a dual-wheel evolution model in its pathway to influence innovation competitiveness, where backward and ordinary cities in this basin find it more difficult to escape the Matthew effect compared to regions like the Yangtze River Delta. Finally, this paper provides recommendations for the talent structure needed to enhance innovation competitiveness in cities at different development stages, offering theoretical and empirical references for the innovation development of the Yellow River Basin from the perspective of optimized human capital quality allocation.