Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of population shrinkage in the Yellow River Basin from the perspective of the Major Function Oriented Zone

The Major Function Oriented Zones (MFOZs) strategy represents a foundational national framework for China's economic development and ecological conservation, fundamentally shaping the spatial patterns of territorial development, utilization, and protection. This strategy plays a critical role in guiding the flow of socio-economic factors, with balanced population distribution serving as its core objective. As a vital ecological security barrier and a key industrial-agricultural region in China, the Yellow River Basin exhibits complex spatial functional diversity encompassing urban, agricultural, and ecological systems, alongside significant population mobility. From the MFOZs perspective, this study investigates the spatial patterns and driving factors of population shrinkage in the Yellow River Basin using methodologies including annual population change rate, Random Forest algorithm, and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). We comprehensively evaluate the characteristics and effectiveness of population guidance across different MFOZs before and after the implementation of the 2010 national planning. The findings reveal: During 2000-2020, 52% of counties in the Yellow River Basin experienced population shrinkage. The proportion of shrinking counties increased from 30% in 2000-2010 to 64% in 2010-2020, with both the spatial extent and severity intensifying significantly. The population guidance effectiveness across different Major Function Oriented Zones (MFOZs) requires strengthening. Since the implementation of the MFOZs planning: Urbanized zones have shown limited spatial spillover effects from regional population growth poles; Agricultural production zones formed shrinking belts in the Fenwei and Huanghuaihai Plains, while retaining population growth poles in upstream areas; Some key ecological function zones failed to achieve effective population relocation. For regions with distinct territorial functions: Geographic advantages are critical factors driving population agglomeration in urbanized zones; Consumption capacity, educational resources, and NDVI levels significantly attract labor forces in key ecological function Zones; Agricultural production zones urgently require industrial and economic transformation. The spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of impacts from nighttime light intensity, fiscal revenue-expenditure per capita, social consumption levels, and healthcare development on population shrinkage and agglomeration is pronounced.