Spatial distribution and influencing factors of four types of floating population in urban and rural areas: A case study of Jiangsu Province

Based on the long table data of the sixth and seventh national population censuses (Jiangsu Province), this paper depicts the spatial distribution characteristics of rural-urban, urban-urban, urban-rural and rural-rural floating population in Jiangsu from the county and city scales. It also explores the commonalities and specificities of the influencing factors behind their spatial distribution. The results show that: (1) The overall scale of the floating population in Jiangsu has grown rapidly, with rural-urban and rural-rural floating populations showing an increasing trend, while urban-urban and urban-rural floating populations have been declining. (2) The spatial distribution of the four types of floating population generally exhibits a north-south disparity consistent with the region's gradient development pattern. However, the changing proportions of intra-provincial and inter-provincial flows in the three sub-regions reflect dynamic shifts in the attractiveness of urban and rural areas within each region. (3) In 2010, urban-urban mobility dominated population flows in the province, followed by rural-urban and urban-rural flows; by 2020, rural-urban flows had become dominant. In southern Jiangsu, both urban and rural areas have become increasingly attractive, indicating a trend toward coordinated urban-rural development. In northern Jiangsu, the floating population has become more concentrated in cities, while rural areas remain less attractive. (4) The income level of urban and rural residents, industrial development, land development intensity, public services, and administrative hierarchy have differentiated effects on the spatial distribution of the four types of floating population. Among them, land development intensity and administrative hierarchy increasingly influence flows toward urban destinations, whereas industrial development plays a more significant role in flows toward rural areas. Interactions among influencing factors generally exhibit bivariate and nonlinear enhancement effects on the spatial distribution of all the four types of floating population.