Research on the spatial pattern and influencing factors of inter-city reverse population mobility

Reverse population mobility is a key factor affecting the optimization of urban system and the coordinated development of regions in China. Based on the 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2015, this study explores the spatial pattern of inter-city reverse population mobility and its influencing factors in China through spatial analysis and mixed-effects logistic regression model. The main findings of the study are as follows: (1) In terms of location patterns, the sources of reverse population mobility are mainly higher-grade first-tier and new first-tier cities, especially the provincial capitals in the southeastern half of the Hu Line, while the destinations of reverse population mobility are mainly medium and lower-grade second-tier cities and below, presenting a spatial pattern of “large dispersion and small concentration”. In terms of flow pattern, large-scale and high-intensity reverse population flows mainly move from higher-grade first-tier cities or new first-tier cities to second-tier cities, and the reverse population flows moving down the city hierarchy basically conforms to the “step” pattern. (2) Among the individual-level factors, high house price, high consumption, high employment competition pressure, and high pollution play a significant role in pushing reverse population mobility, while low house price, low consumption, low employment competition pressure, low pollution, better green environment and education play a significant role in pulling reverse population mobility. The above results are not only useful for deepening the regularity understanding of the spatial pattern of reverse population mobility, but also have important policy implications for optimizing the urban system, and promoting the development of small and medium-sized cities.